Pricing and Trends

HOEP 30 day trailing average (all hours)  $35.90/MWh       Previous Report     $36.71
HOEP 30 day trailing On Peak average    $39.95                                          $40.45
HOEP 90 day trailing average (all hours)  $36.12                                          $36.15
HOEP 90 day trailing On Peak average    $40.17                                          $40.17

Current Term Prices (indicative only)

Term Prices in $ per MWh
Type of Hedge    Bal 10      Cal 2011      Cal 2012
Base (7 x 24)     $36.84      $39.54        $42.85
Peak (5 x 16)     $44.37      $49.36        $53.62

Market Commentary

February ended with an average HOEP of almost $36.00 /MWh and On Peak average HOEP of a nickel shy of $40.00 /MWh.  These are relatively low values for February, when power demand is normally high due to heating load and normal industrial/commercial power demand also.  The recession is still taking its toll on demand, with most economic forecasters predicting a slow climb back towards growth.  We will likely not return to previous demand levels for power though.

The latest data from the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) shows that annual consumption in Ontario has dropped from 152 Terawatt hours in 2006 and 2007 to 140 TWh in 2009 which represents about an 8% drop over that time.  Most of the decrease occurred in 2009.  The IESO's forecast of consumption for 2010 is 141 TWh and for 2011 it is 142 TWh.  Partly, these reduced consumption figures are a result of conservation efforts also.